What's in a Loss?

Anyone who has been following the Capitals for at least five years knows how to tolerate failure.  Well, maybe not tolerate, but certainly accept.  I mean, it is not as if we have any other choice in the matter.  Like most Caps fans (except a certain few, everlasting pessimists), we thought that the 2009-2010 season was going to be different.  We had a glimmer of hope that this could be the season.

It wasn't.  Simple as that.  Some people want to blame Halak, others want to blame Boudreau.  Most Pens fans blame Ovechkin.  I have yet to understand all these individuals being blamed for a team sport.  It isn't like anyone scored on their own net in overtime (*Cough*Boyle*Cough*).  It was a team failure, for sure.

The regular season, sure, it was fine.  A team that racks up 121 points is a good team, for sure.  But jog back you memory a little.  How many of those overtime wins did the Capitals only decide to start playing in the middle of the third period?  How many time did they sit comfortably with a lead in the first and watch it slip away?  How many games did the team act like skill, and skill alone, would help them prevail?  Too often.  I would wonder how that fares in the regular season versus the playoffs.

Now, yes, this was a great team last year.  They clearly dominated the league.  They never even lost to the same team in regulation more than twice (New Jersey & Tampa Bay were the only teams to beat the Caps twice in regulation).  They only had fifteen loses as well.  But let's look at that stat.  Fifteen losses in an Eighty-Two game season.  Impressive to say the least.  I would wonder how that stacks up to teams in say the last twenty seasons, which means 1987-2010 (Lockout in 2004-2005 and a shortened season in 1994-1995.  So lets not count those two, OK?)

Team	Season	Losses
Detroit	1995-1996	13
Washington	2009-2010	15
Detroit	2005-2006	16
Colorado	2000-2001	16
Dallas	2002-2003	17
Detroit	2001-2002	17
Calgary	1988-1989	17
San Jose	2008-2009	18
Montréal	1988-1989	18
Boston	2008-2009	19
Detroit	2006-2007	19
Boston	2003-2004	19
Colorado	2002-2003	19
New Jersey	2000-2001	19
St. Louis	1999-2000	19
Dallas	1998-1999	19

Not to bad, you say?  Only one team, Detroit, has had less losses, 13, in the last twenty full seasons (give or take 2 games in certain seasons).  Now, lets see how those teams did in the playoffs.

Team	Season	Losses	Playoffs Result
Detroit	1995-1996	13	Lost in Conference Finals
Washington	2009-2010	15	Lost in Conference Quarter-Finals
Colorado	2000-2001	16	Won the Stanley Cup
Detroit	2005-2006	16	Lost in Conference Quarter-Finals
Detroit	2001-2002	17	Won the Stanley Cup
Calgary	1988-1989	17	Won the Stanley Cup
Dallas	2002-2003	17	Lost in Conference Semi-Finals
Montréal	1988-1989	18	Lost in the Stanley Cup Finals
San Jose	2008-2009	18	Lost in Conference Quarter-Finals
Dallas	1998-1999	19	Won the Stanley Cup
New Jersey	2000-2001	19	Lost in the Stanley Cup Finals
Boston	2008-2009	19	Lost in Conference Semi-Finals
Boston	2003-2004	19	Lost in Conference Quarter-Finals
Colorado	2002-2003	19	Lost in Conference Quarter-Finals
St. Louis	1999-2000	19	Lost in Conference Quarter-Finals
Detroit	2006-2007	19	Lost in Conference Finals

We really have a mixed bag here.  Four teams won the Cup.  Only five even made it to the Cup Finals.  Seven of the sixteen, almost half, never made it out of the first round of the playoffs.  What exactly can this tell us though?  How about the simple fact that perhaps it is not the record that is indicative of a team.

Here is another fun set of stats.  If the Caps led after the first period, the won 71.8% of the time.  That is eighteenth in the league, so about average.  If the Caps trailed after the first period, the won 47.1% of the time.  That was second best in the league for the 2009-2010 season.  And no one has a better winning percentage, 36.4%, when trailing after two periods. 

Now in the playoffs, the Canadiens scored first in every game the Caps lost.  In fact, they never even lost the lead in any of those four games.  But hey, what happened to the Caps team that was the best in the league when trailing after one or even two periods?  When trailing after one period in the series, the Caps only won once.  When trailing after two periods, the Caps only won once.  We are talking about the same game here, being Game 2.  1/5 is equivalent to only 20.0%.  What happened to that other 17.1% or 16.4%?  How come the Caps came back less in the post-season than they did in the regular season?

Well, that's simple.  Playoff hockey is a different beast.  Whatever you earned in the regular season it doesn't mean anything.  Whatever the team you're facing earned doesn't mean anything.  You never win because you think you deserve to win.  You win because you go out there and freaking win.  121 points doesn't win Stanley Cups.  Sixteen wins in the post-season does.

The Caps acted like they deserved to win that series.  Who could beat the mighty Capitals, who had just come off the best season in the history of their franchise?  How about the lowly Canadiens.  The eighth and lowest seed.  In fact, no other team in the playoffs last season had less points than Montréal, except for Philly.  And guess which two teams played in the Conference Finals.  The two "worsts" teams to make the tournament.  I'll take the number #7/#8 seed and a trip to the Cup over the #1 seed and a first round exit any day.